Mid-August Almond Market Outlook Update

Almond Market Update provided by Paul Ewing at Hilltop Ranch

Almond Update

Posted on August 11th, 2010

Today the Almond Board of California reported:

July 2010 shipments were 112 million lbs. 

-  Down 7.4% from July 2009 shipments of 121 million

- Domestic shipments were up 2.9% and exports were down 12.4%

Following the NASS Objective estimate and June ship figures, pricing dropped quickly and then recovered very quickly as well.  Prices have been fairly steady for the past 2 weeks.  This was the final position report for the 2009 crop year.

SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:

Today’s report brought shipments for the season to 1.47 billion lbs, vs. 1.389 billion last season, up 5.9%.  Domestic shipments finished up 9.3% while exports were up 4.4%.  The majority of export growth went to China/Hong Kong, where the industry shipped 133 million lbs. vs. 99 million lbs. last season.  Spain remained the #1 export destination at 143 million lbs. 

THE 2009 CROP:

Crop receipts at the end of the season totaled 1.4059 billion lbs. - just 4.14% above NASS’ objective estimate.

THE 2010 CROP:

Crop development has continued without any major concerns.  Harvest is running at least 10 days behind last season.  We do not anticipate having a good idea of yields for at least another 45 days.

OUTLOOK:

Expectations are critical when it comes to the almond industry’s monthly position reports.  We believe expectations were for something in the range of 95-100 million lbs., with hope for better.  So the 112 million, while down, is a bullish factor at the moment.  This brings the carry-out to just 306 million lbs., a number which may be adjusted slightly next month once the Almond Board calculates the final loss & exempt.  With this lower than anticipated figure (306), we are now anticipating a 2010 crop year supply much closer to 1.9 than 1.95 billion lbs, and which is also assuming the NASS estimate is correct. 

After hitting rock bottom shortly following the shocking NASS estimate release, sentiment has improved significantly. 

We still believe certain varieties, sizes, and qualities may be in short supply for the transition period into the new crop.  We are already seeing a shortage in nearly all sizes of Cals and Mission types. 

The late crop will likely decrease August shipment figures (of inshell particularly), but otherwise we expect stronger shipments and inquiry levels going forward. 

The next position report is due September 10.

Questions regarding the report should be directed to Paul Ewing (paul@hilltopranch.com).