A La Nina is predicted for the winter of 2010-2011 which suggests that we will be experiencing below normal precipitation for the coming year. The prediction report can be found below:
EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
5 August 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to
strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.
During July 2010 La Niña conditions developed, as negative sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies strengthened across the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. All of the Niño indices
decreased with values less than -1.0oC in Niño 1+2, 3, and 3.4
regions at the end of the month. The subsurface heat content (average
temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) continued to reflect a
deep layer of below-average temperatures east of the Date Line. Also
convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over
the western and central tropical Pacific. Enhanced low-level easterly
trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds continued over the
western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and
atmospheric anomalies reflect the development and strengthening of La
Niña conditions.
Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue through early
2011. However, there is disagreement among the models over the eventual
strength of La Niña. Most dynamical models generally predict a
moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the
statistical model forecasts indicate a weaker episode. Given the strong
cooling observed over the last several months and the apparent
ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model
outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time.
Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and
last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11.
Expected La Niña impacts during August-October 2010 include
suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and
enhanced convection over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation
impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern
Hemisphere summer and early fall, but strengthen considerably during
late fall and winter. Also, La Niña can contribute to increased
Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over
the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th
update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).
Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are
updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled
for 9 September 2010. To receive an e-mail notification when the
monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail
message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
Will south eastern Queensland experience a drought this 2010-2011 year?
ReplyDeletewhat spring conditions can we expect for the 2010-2011, can we expect hot dry conditions or lots of rain?
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Ian cairns
Please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:La_Nina_regional_impacts.gif - this figure provides a pictorial effect of a La Nina year. Looking at the figure, a La Nina indicates above average rainfall for Indonesia, Pacific Northwest Coast of the United States, and Southeastern Africa. Below average precipitation rates occur in the Southwestern States of the US, and the Ecuadorian region of South America.
ReplyDeletesouthern california will be drier, correct? will rain be expected in only Dec. or will Oct. and Nov. still see some rain?
ReplyDeleteCorrect, Southern California will receive less than normal rain. Rain may come in the normal months, but again, in less than normal amounts.
ReplyDeleteI find this most interesting... What will happen in Europe the winter 2010-2011?
ReplyDeleteWithin Europe, the effects of an El Nino/La Nina are very mild. In El Nino years, heavier than normal rainfalls may occur in the spring, while La Nina years may bring a slight reduction. Temperature changes associated with the weather patterns are also weaker since the weather/water oscillation is within the Pacific Ocean.
ReplyDeleteThis La nina is the most dangerous la nina Albuquerque has seen in 80 years. Albuquerque east mountain neighborhoods will be subjected to the same fire threat SoCal puts up with regularly, we arn't prepared for that kind of threat here!
ReplyDeleteI agree that fires are a threat - especially as many of the ranges are recovering from years of drought. Thanks for keeping me posted on conditions in Arizona!
ReplyDelete